Friday, April 30, 2010

Talk Derby To Us: Week 16

April 30, 2010

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Kentucky Derby weekend is finally here. Twenty three-year-olds are set to take their spots in the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby, but for the second straight year, the undisputed favorite will not be there. Eskendereya was pulled from Derby consideration earlier this week after a filling was found in his knee. Now we are left with a very competitive field, with no clear favorite. The two top choices on the morning line, Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy, drew the inside and outside posts respectively. This puts both of them at extreme disadvantages. Heavy rains are expected for the race on Saturday, which changes everything for handicappers.

As I break down the race, horses that I think you should immediately toss out in your handicapping are Line of David, Dean’s Kitten, Make Music for Me, Backtalk, and Homeboykris. Remember that California horses have had a major lack of success in the Derby after the state changed its surfaces over to synthetics, so toss out Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy. Don’t succumb to the hype that they are getting. I thought that Devil May Care should have run in the Oaks, and I don’t particularly like her chances here. Todd Pletcher did get his only Triple Crown race win with a filly, Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont, but this filly is no Rags to Riches.

There appears to be too many speed horses for a horse to get loose on the front end and win. Look for horses like American Lion, Conveyance, and Discreetly Mine. Conveyance is probably the only one that has a legitimate chance to win on the front end.

A couple horses like Super Saver, Paddy O’Prado, and Jackson Bend will most likely be up there with the leaders. Super Saver has to be taken seriously as Calvin Borel’s Derby mount. Borel has won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies. Paddy O’Prado is a trendy upset choice, but he is a turf specialist and is a huge question mark. Jackson Bend is a legitimate horse that will have a sweet price. Nick Zito has pulled shockers before, so don’t be surprised if this horse wins.

The horses likely to sit off the pace include Noble’s Promise, Mission Impazible, and Dublin. Noble’s Promise does not have the pedigree to get the Derby distance, but he has been working well. Mission Impazible is still flying under the radar. He is a really nice horse that will get an amazing price, at least 20-1. He has improved in every start this year, so I don’t understand why he is still not getting enough attention. He put in a great work last week at Churchill, very much outshining his stablemate Rule. Dublin is a nice colt, and he has done well this year. I don’t really think he is good enough to get the distance.

There are three closers on the board to watch out for, Ice Box, Stately Victor, and Awesome Act. Ice Box will be the one of the closers that will be most dependant on the pace, but I don’t think it will be fast enough for him to get up for the win. Throw him out of exotic wagering at your own risk. Stately Victor is a quickly improving colt with a lot of upside and a lot of question marks. His father, Ghostzapper, could certainly go 1 1/4 miles and could definitely run in the slop. Is he another Blue Grass fluke, or is he the real deal? Awesome Act is a serious contender if he returns to the form he displayed in the Gotham. He will put in a strong move, but will it be enough to catch the leader in time?

Now for my selections, I think Mission Impazible will be the winner. I really liked his work at Churchill last week. Awesome Act will get up for the place, but I will not be surprised if he beats me. I’ll take Stately Victor for the show, and Jackson Bend will hold on for fourth.

For the Oaks, Blind Luck is going to be the clear favorite, but she is a favorite that I think can be beaten. I really like the form that It’s Tea Time has been showing as of late, and I think the 1 1/8 miles will really suit her. I don’t think that Evening Jewel is an Ashland fluke, but I’m not really certain about her. She will be making her first start on a traditional dirt surface. If you’re looking for a live longshot Champagne d’Oro is the horse for you. She is by Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of last year’s Oaks Winner Rachel Alexandra, and if she is allowed to get loose on the lead, look out. I think that It’s Tea Time will win the 136th running of the Kentucky Oaks.

It was a fun ride to the Kentucky Derby. I would like to thank everyone for keeping up with the list even though it has come out late at times. I have had an unbelievably busy this semester. Thank you for your patience. I will continue to maintain a list throughout the rest of the Triple Crown.

As always thank you for reading my list! Happy Derby weekend!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 29, 2010 (Week 16)
1. Mission Impazible
He has improved in every start this year. He looks to take a big step up in the Kentucky Derby.
2. Awesome Act
The European trainee will be very dangerous if he is the same horse that won the Gotham.
3. Stately Victor
He has been working great in the mud. His daddy, Ghostzapper, could sure run in the mud.
4. Jackson Bend
He has been super in his workouts at Churchill Downs. He has been flying under the radar.
5. Ice Box
He took a hit when Rule scratched. This pace is not going to be fast enough for him to win.
6. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ was anything but Lucky in his post position draw. He won’t be able to overcome it.
7. Sidney’s Candy
The West Coast star is a popular choice, but drawing the outside post really hurts his chances.
8. Noble’s Promise
He has been working well at Churchill. His pedigree says he can’t get the Derby distance.
9. Super Saver
It is very hard to count Calvin Borel out of any race at Churchill Downs, especially the Derby.
10. Paddy O’Prado
He has a very turf pedigree, but he has shown he can run in the mud with a very strong work.

Keep an eye on: Conveyance, Line of David

Dropped from list: Eightyfiveinafifty, Endorsement, Eskendereya

Upcoming Races
5/1/10 – Kentucky Derby (G1) (1 1/4 miles, Churchill Downs) $2,000,000
Last Week’s Races
4/24/10 – Derby Trial (G3) (1 mile, Churchill Downs) Winner: Hurricane Ike
4/24/10 – Withers Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Aqueduct) Winner: Afleet Again

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 29, 2010 (Week 16)
1. Blind Luck
If Devil May Care defects from the Oaks, she will most likely take up the mantle of favorite.
2. Evening Jewel
The Ashland Winner would be a great Cinderella story if she can win the lilies next week.
3. Amen Hallelujah
The daughter of Malibu Moon may bypass the Kentucky Oaks for the Run for the Roses.
4. It’s Tea Time
She back on the list. I have still not given up on this one. If she runs, she will be tough to beat.
5. Champagne d’Oro
Has been getting some criticism after her Comely win; it’s time for her to show that she’s legit.
Keep an eye on: Ailalea, Quiet Temper

Dropped from list: Devil May Care, Hot Dixie Chick, Sassy Image, Touching Beauty

Upcoming Races
4/30/10 – Kentucky Oaks (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Churchill Downs) $500,000
Last Week’s Races
None

Friday, April 23, 2010

Talk Derby To Us: Week 15

April 22, 2010

Hello Everyone,

The road to the Kentucky Derby has finally made its way to Churchill Downs. The graded earnings list remains intact after last week’s Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. No horse was able to gather sufficient earnings to jump into the one of the coveted top twenty spots. Robby Albarado guided Exhi to a beautiful front running masterpiece to pull the huge upset at 20-1. My surprise selection Krypton finished ninth. The only change that has appeared to occur is that trainer Todd Pletcher has mentioned that he is considering entering his filly Devil May Care in the Run for the Roses to go along with his slew of colts.

This week has two graded stakes races for the colts, with only one of them most likely having an impact on the Kentucky Derby. The Grade III Derby Trial every few years will produce a Derby starter, but usually they are an afterthought not worth mentioning. This year is different. There are two horses that are looking into earning a spot in the Derby starting gate, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince. Eigthyfiveinafifty drew a lot of attention to himself back in January when he broke his maiden by over 17 lengths at Aqueduct. In his next start, the Whirlaway Stakes, he blew the turn, dumping his jockey in the process. He then proceeded to hop a couple fences and ran loose around the backside before a security guard was able to catch him. He received some time off to recover from the incident. He resurfaced in the Grade III Bay Shore at Aqueduct. He was very professional in his very easy victory. The other big hose looking for a spot in the Derby is Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. He started off the season with a runner-up finish to Ice Box in an allowance race, which was followed up with a fourth place finish in the Fountain of Youth far behind Eskendereya. His next start was his nose defeat in the Grade I Florida Derby, again losing to Ice Box. He was never a factor in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes finishing seventh. For my selection, I am going to take the speed demon Eightyfiveinafifty. The Grade III Withers Stakes is headlined by multiple grade II winner D’Funnybone, who is going to bypass the Derby for the Preakness, so the Withers will most likely not produce a Derby starter. I don’t think that any is going to be able to beat D’Funnybone in this one.

Even though there were no races for the girls last week and none are happening this week, there was a major shakeup. Champion She Be Wild is out of the Oaks after fracturing her left front pastern. She will be able make a return to racing. The only other Oaks happening is the possibility of Devil May Care defecting to run in the Derby.

It has been a fun road to Churchill Downs this year. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did, and I look forward to putting out my Derby preview issue next week.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 22, 2010 (Week 15)
1. Eskendereya
It’s almost show time for the Derby favorite. Will this colt make himself into a superstar?
2. Mission Impazible
The son of Unbridled’s Song is not getting the attention that he deserves as a real contender.
3. Ice Box
Nick Zito’s strong closing colt is going to depend on a very fast pace to win the big race.
4. Awesome Act
This horse is sitting on a big performance. He is going to rebound from his unlucky Wood.
5. Stately Victor
Can he show he is no fluke, or will he be another Blue Grass winner to fold on Derby day?
6. Lookin At Lucky
Redemption is the word for the Champ. He has been very unlucky in his last couple starts.
7. Sidney’s Candy
The West Coast star will most likely not be allowed to roam free on the lead as he has out west.
8. Jackson Bend
He put in a super bullet workout on Thursday at Churchill. Will he have the earnings to get in?
9. Eightyfiveinafifty
It is all up to him now to earn himself the right to compete in the premier three-year-old race.
10. Noble’s Promise
Moved back onto the list after he fired sizzling bullet work going five furlongs at Churchill.

Keep an eye on: Endorsement, Line of David

Dropped from list: Super Saver

Upcoming Races
4/24/10 – Derby Trial (G3) (1 mile, Churchill Downs) $200,000
4/24/10 – Withers Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Aqueduct) $150,000
Last Week’s Races
4/17/10 – Lexington Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Keeneland) Winner: Exhi

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 22, 2010 (Week 15)
1. Devil May Care
The daughter of Malibu Moon may bypass the Kentucky Oaks for the Run for the Roses.
2. Blind Luck
If Devil May Care defects from the Oaks, she will most likely take up the mantle of favorite.
3. Evening Jewel
The Ashland Winner would be a great Cinderella story if she can win the lilies next week.
5. Sassy Image
She back on the list. I have still not given up on this one. If she runs, she will be tough to beat.
4. Touching Beauty
Has been getting some criticism after her Comely win; it’s time for her to show that she’s legit.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Hot Dixie Chick

Dropped from list: She Be Wild

Upcoming Races
None
Last Week’s Races
None

Friday, April 16, 2010

Talk Derby To Us: Week 14

April 16, 2010

Hello Everyone,

The Derby prep season is winding down and the field for the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby is taking shape. In both of the graded stakes last week there were huge upsets. In the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Stately Victor pulled off a huge shocker at 40-1. The son of Ghostzapper powered home to win by 4 1/4 lengths. Being by Ghostzapper out of a Dynaformer mare, he should be more than capable of handling the Derby distance, and he should not be overlooked on Derby day. My selection, Odysseus, did not appear to handle the surface very well and finished last. After the race it was revealed that he had a bone chip in his knee, and he is off the Derby trail. Line of David was the one to pull the shocker in the Grade I Arkansas Derby. After setting the pace, he dug in gamely to hold off the late challenge of Super Saver. Noble’s Promise, my selection for the race finished fifth. He got pinched at the break and steadied going into the first turn, and he was never really a factor after that. His status for the Kentucky Derby remains uncertain at this point.

This week brings about one of the last chances for graded earnings to get into the Derby, the $300,000 Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. The headliners are stakes winners Connemara, Uptowncharlybrown, and Exhi. Connemara and Exhi are two more Todd Pletcher trainees looking to join his army of horses that will line up in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. It seems like every week Plecther has a new horse headed for Churchill Downs. Uptowncharlybrown is not being pointed at the Kentucky Derby, and he will go to the Belmont Stakes with a good effort in the Lexington. His main goal is the Grade I Haskell at Monmouth Park on August 1. An intriguing prospect in the race is the Rock Hard Ten colt Krypton. He won an allowance race at Keeneland two weeks ago by more than 6 lengths going seven furlongs. For my selection, I was thinking about pick Connemara, but upon further review I think Krypton will make some noise in winning the big race on Saturday.

Things have wound down for the fillies. In last week’s Grade III Comely Stakes at Aqueduct, Touching Beauty stalked the pace and took the lead at about the eighths pole. The daughter of Tapit dug in from there and won by half of a length. There are no more graded stakes left for the girls before the big race on April 30. Now all that is left to do is to watch the field take shape. It is hard to believe that we are only two weeks away from the Oaks and the Derby!

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 14, 2010 (Week 14)
1. Eskendereya
It’s all up to him now. Is he really a freak, or will he be another Derby favorite to fall?
2. Mission Impazible
The son of Unbridled’s Song is not getting the attention that he deserves as a real contender.
3. Ice Box
He is a closer. The pacesetters will dictate they race for him. He needs a fast pace to win.
4. Awesome Act
I didn’t realize that he threw a shoe in the Wood until after I posted the list last week.
5. Stately Victor
The son of Ghostzapper won the Blue Grass impressively. He won going away by 4 1/4.
6. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ is looking for redemption after his Santa Anita Derby fiasco where he finished 3rd.
7. Sidney’s Candy
The West Coast star will come east as he tries the dirt for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.
8. Jackson Bend
He has finished as a runner-up three times this year. Maybe his luck will change in the Derby.
9. Eightyfiveinafifty
How he comes out of the Derby Trial will tell us if he is running on the first Saturday in May.
10. Endorsement
Had a fine performance in the Sunland Derby, but it’s hard to gauge exactly how good he is.

Keep an eye on: Line of David, Super Saver

Dropped from list: D’Funnybone, Noble’s Promise, Odysseus

Upcoming Races
4/17/10 – Lexington Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Keeneland) $300,000
Last Week’s Races
4/10/10 – Blue Grass Stakes (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Keeneland) Winner: Stately Victor
4/10/10 – Arkansas Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park) Winner: Line of David

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 14, 2010 (Week 14)
1. Devil May Care
The Bonnie Miss winner will is still the one to beat for the April 30 Kentucky Oaks.
2. Blind Luck
The Pollard’s Vision filly redeemed herself with a big win in the Fantasy Stakes.
3. Evening Jewel
She beat a very nice field in the Ashland to stamp herself as a top contender for the Oaks.
4. Touching Beauty
She had a nice win in the Comely to punch her ticket for the chance to run for the Lilies.
5. She Be Wild
The Champ won the BC Juvenile Fillies after a loss at Keeneland. Can she do that again?
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Sassy Image

Dropped from list: Hot Dixie Chick

Upcoming Races
None
Last Week’s Races
3/10/10 – Comely Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Aqueduct) Winner: Touching Beauty

Friday, April 9, 2010

Talk Derby To Us: Week 13

April 8, 2010

Hello Everyone,

Well ladies and gentlemen, we have our favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya stamped himself as the undisputed favorite for the run for the roses after winning the Grade I Wood Memorial by almost 10 lengths in hand. It was spectacular. I’ll be honest, I thought he would bounce off of his great performance in the Fountain of Youth, but I misjudged how good this horse really is. Awesome Act, my selection for the race finished third. Champion Lookin at Lucky was upset in the Santa Anita Derby, just as I predicted. I just chose the wrong horse. Sidney’s Candy was the horse to do it. Lookin at Lucky did not receive the best of rides from jockey Garrett Gomez, and Bob Baffert ripped him after the race for it. It has all been worked out and Gomez will retain the mount for the Run for the Roses. I was spot on in the Illinois Derby. The track played to speed, just as I thought, and American Lion wired the field. I picked up another winning prediction in the Grade III Bay Shore Stakes. Eightyfiveinafifty put himself back on the Derby trail with a win in the Bay Shore. He will need to win the Derby Trial to get himself a spot in the Derby. In the Grade III Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland, I correctly predicted that Nordic Truce would be the victor. That gave me three out of five for the weekend. Naturally, I missed the two Grade I races, but I got the Grade IIIs.

This week has only two graded stakes races for the colts, but they are two very big ones, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes and the Grade I Arkansas Derby. The Blue Grass has a great field with several horses looking to strengthen their derby credentials. Tampa Bay Derby Winner Odysseus is looking to cement his spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince will most likely go off as the favorite. Also in the field is stakes winner Paddy O’Prado and the much hyped Interactif. I think that Odysseus will be the victor in this one, making himself a leading contender for the Derby. The Arkansas Derby has a stellar field. Super Saver is looking to show he is still a horse to be reckoned with on the Derby trail. Noble’s Promise is trying to show his is a real Derby contender after a fine runner-up finish last time out. Grade I winner Dublin will be looking for his shot at redemption for himself and trainer D. Wayne Lucas. I’m going to go with Noble’s Promise on his nice performance last time out.

For the fillies, Blind Luck put herself back on the radar as a serious Oaks contender with a big score in the Grade II Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park. In the Grade I Ashland at Keeneland, Evening Jewel won after setting the repelling a couple bids for the lead. Champion She Be Wild finished third, but she shouldn’t lose respect here. Keeneland was the site of her only defeat during her championship season. The only grade stakes race for the girls this weekend is the Grade III Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. The field is full of fillies that are trying to make a name for themselves and build up their Oaks credentials.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 8, 2010 (Week 13)
1. Eskendereya
The Giant’s Causeway colt is now the undisputed Derby favorite after his romp in the Wood.
2. Mission Impazible
The grey colt has a great shot in the big race with his ability to sit just off the pace.
3. Odysseus
The Blue Grass Stakes is his last chance to gain enough earnings to ensure a spot in the Derby.
4. Ice Box
It looks like Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta are getting two horses in the Run for the Roses.
5. Noble’s Promise
He looks to improve after a strong runner-up performance in his last start this weekend.
6. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ went down last week due to a bad ride by his jock that sent tempers flaring.
7. Sidney’s Candy
All this colt does is he keeps on winning. He deserves recognition after beating the Champ.
8. Jackson Bend
The Florida Sensation moves to the Derby after two respectable places behind Eskendereya.
9. Eightyfiveinafifty
His chance at the Kentucky Derby will come in the Derby Trial in week before the Derby.
10. D’Funnybone
It appears the speedy son of D’Wildcat will bypass the Derby and go for the Preakness.

Keep an eye on: Awesome Act, Super Saver

Dropped from list: Schoolyard Dreams

Upcoming Races
4/10/10 – Blue Grass Stakes (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Keeneland) $750,000
4/10/10 – Arkansas Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park) $1,000,000
Last Week’s Races
4/3/10 – Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct) Winner: Eskendereya
4/3/10 – Santa Anita Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita Park) Winner: Sidney’s Candy
4/3/10 – Illinois Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Hawthorne) Winner: American Lion
4/3/10 – Bay Shore Stakes (G3) (7 furlongs, Aqueduct) Winner: Eightyfiveinafifty
4/3/10 – Transylvania Stakes (G3) (1 1/16 miles Turf, Keeneland) Winner: Nordic Truce

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 8, 2010 (Week 13)
1. Devil May Care
The Bonnie Miss winner will is still the one to beat for the April 30 Kentucky Oaks.
2. Blind Luck
She certainly redeemed herself with a big win in the Fantasy Stakes last week.
3. Evening Jewel
She deserves serious consideration after setting the pace and winning the Ashland.
4. Hot Dixie Chick
The big question for her is whether she is going to be ready or not for the big race.
5. She Be Wild
The Champ returned to the site of her only defeat last year and lost the race but not respect.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Sassy Image

Dropped from list: Diva Delite

Upcoming Races
3/10/10 – Comely Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Aqueduct) $100,000
Last Week’s Races
3/2/10 – Fantasy Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) Winner: Blind Luck
3/3/10 – Ashland Stakes (G1) (1 1/16 mile, Keeneland) Winner: Evening Jewel

Friday, April 2, 2010

Talk Derby To Us: Week 12

April 2, 2010

Hello Everyone,

I must apologize for the late release of this week’s edition. I had a lot of schoolwork to so. Last week was a huge week, with several upsets, and I got roughed up a little bit myself. Four horses were knocked off the list, and I didn’t pick a single winner right in any of the four big stakes. Ouch! The richest Derby prep, the UAE Derby, was won by Musir an Australian colt by superstar stallion Redoute’s Choice who is a no for the Kentucky Derby because of the southern hemisphere age difference. Mendip, my can’t miss selection finished third. In the Grade II Louisiana Derby, Mission Impazible collard pacesetter A Little Warm in deep stretch. My selection, Drosselmeyer finished third, and former Derby Top Ten member Discretely Mine finished fourth. To add insult to injury, I gave up on Mission Impazible a couple races ago! At least I knew that the son of Unbridled’s Song had talent… I did the exact same thing with Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End Stakes. I thought he would do well in the stakes races at Turfway this year, but gave up on him after a loss last time out. My selection Connemara finished third (Notice a pattern yet), and he subsequently fell off the list. The Sunland Derby the next day was supposed to be my saving grace, but it wasn’t to be. I was right that Conveyance (another list dropout) would be upset, but I picked the wrong horse. WinStar’s Endorsement was the one to spring the upset. Naturally, Tempted to Tapit finished third… At least I was consistent with my picks!

This weekend is littered with graded stakes for three-year old colts. The Grade I Wood Memorial will be bringing the most competitive field to the post. The favorite will be Fountain of Youth Winner Eskendereya. The son of Giant’s Causeway is looking to cement his status as the undisputed favorite in the Run for the Roses. Standing in his way is the up and coming Awesome Act. The regally bred Awesome Again colt wants to throw his name in the hat for a shot at being the Derby favorite. Schoolyard Dreams in looking for redemption after getting nosed out at the line in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. Also in the field is the Florida Sensation, Jackson Bend. Once very highly rated on the list, he fell off after two losses this year, but they were both runner-up performances to Winslow Homer and Eskendereya, not bad at all. Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta’s colt is getting a little overlooked… wait a second. Aren’t these the two that sprung the upset in the Florida Derby with another overlooked colt? That wasn’t their first dance either. Remember back in 2008, their Da’Tara pulled the shocker in the Belmont over the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Winner Big Brown. It would take all day to recount how many times Nick Zito has done this sort of thing. I think Eskendereya is going to bounce in this race. That performance last time out was too good. If he doesn’t bounce, he’s a freak, and we will have a serious Triple Crown contender on our hands. I like that horse, but I don’t think he’s of that caliber. I would love to see Zito do it again with Jackson Bend. I really like that horse, but I can’t bring myself to picking him. I am going to go with Awesome Act. He looked great last time out, winning the Gotham in hand. We have seen Awesome Again sire freakishly good horses before, remember Ghostzapper? In the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, Champion Lookin At Lucky, Sidney’s Candy and Caracortado look to do battle. Lookin At Lucky has no pressure to win, so he most likely won’t be pushed too hard. I think he’ll lose. I don’t think Sidney’s Candy is going to get away with this one on the lead. I think Caracortado is going to take it, giving the media its darling Cinderella story. The Grade III Illinois Derby will bring American Lion, who is desperate for redemption. The race could play into his hands since this race traditionally has been very kind to speed horses (see War Emblem and Recapturetheglory). The likely favorite will be the Smarty Jones colt, Backtalk, who won his debut back in late February fighting pacesetter Royal Express to the wire. I think that this race will play to the pacesetter as it has done in the past, so I’m going with American Lion. The other two graded stakes are unlikely to produce a Derby starter, but I’ll make selections for them anyway. Eightyfiveinafifty will win the Grade III Bay Shore with ease showing he’s one of the top three-year old sprinters. In the Grade III Transylvania, the undefeated Nordic Truce will take down the American Ascot hero Strike the Tiger.

For the girls the only graded stakes last week was the Grade III Bourbonette Oaks Breeders’ Cup at Turfway Park. It was won by Orchestrator. I don’t she is a serious contender for the Oaks. This weekend however, has two huge races. The Grade I Ashland will feature a very nice field that includes Champion She Be Wild and Canadian Champion Negligee. Negligee was the only horse to beat She Be Wild during her championship season. The Grade II Fantasy at Oaklawn drew a very short field of only four horses. Grade I Winner Blink Luck will be the heavy favorite against this very short field.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 2, 2010 (Week 12)
1. Eskendereya
The Wood is where he can show his supremacy once and for all as the favorite for the Derby.
2. Mission Impazible
The Unbridled’s Song Colt had an impressive stretch run in winning the Louisiana Derby.
3. Odysseus
Tom Albertrani said that he will run the son of Malibu Moon colt in the Blue Grass Stakes.
4. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ will go to the post in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday as the decided favorite.
5. Ice Box
Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta are going to try to score another upset with their Jackson Bend.
6. Awesome Act
He can vault to the top of the list with a win in the Wood, but can he beat Eskendereya?
7. D’Funnybone
Trainer Rick Dutrow said he will most likely run in the Withers and then the Preakness.
8. Noble’s Promise
The Arkansas Derby next weekend will show us if this colt is a contender or a pretender.
9. Jackson Bend
Returns to the list after a long absence. Could Zito score another shakeup on the Derby trail?
10. Sidney’s Candy
The horses on the list are dropping like flies. The California runner is here almost by default.
Keep an eye on: Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver

Dropped from list: Connemara, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Tempted to Tapit

Upcoming Races
4/3/10 – Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct) $750,000
4/3/10 – Santa Anita Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita Park) $750,000
4/3/10 – Illinois Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Hawthorne) $500,000
4/3/10 – Bay Shore Stakes (G3) (7 furlongs, Aqueduct) $200,000
4/3/10 – Transylvania Stakes (G3) (1 1/16 miles Turf, Keeneland) $100,000
Last Week’s Races
3/27/10 – UAE Derby (G2) (1900m, Meydan Racecourse) Winner: Musir
3/27/10 – Louisiana Derby (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds) Winner: Mission Impazible
3/27/10 – Lane’s End Stakes (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Turfway Park) Winner: Dean’s Kitten
3/28/10 – Sunland Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Sunland Park) Winner: Endorsement

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 2, 2010 (Week 12)
1. Devil May Care
She is now a leading candidate to win the Oaks after her huge score in the Bonnie Miss.
2. She Be Wild
The Champ will get to strut he stuff this weekend at Keeneland in the Ashland Stakes.
3. Hot Dixie Chick
She put herself back in the spotlight after winning big last week. Can she go the distance?
4. Blind Luck
She can redeem herself with a win in the Fantasy on Friday, and put her name back at the top.
5. Sassy Image
Not sure when this Broken Vow filly will resurface next. Trainer Romans hasn’t specified.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Diva Delite

Dropped from list: None

Upcoming Races
3/2/10 – Fantasy Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) $300,000
3/3/10 – Ashland Stakes (G1) (1 1/16 mile, Keeneland) $400,000
Last Week’s Races
3/27/10 – Bourbonette Oaks Breeder’s Cup (G3) (1 mile, Turfway Park) Winner: Orchestrator

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Talk Derby To Us: Week 11

March 25, 2010

Hello Everyone,

In the Grade I Florida Derby and the Grade II Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park last weekend, Derby dreams become a reality for some, but for others, it disappeared. In the Florida Derby, Ice Box put in a dazzling stretch run barely beating Pleasant Prince to the wire by a nose. The favorite, Rule, was caught in deep stretch and finished third. Trainer Nick Zito said that he will train the Florida Derby Winner up to the Kentucky Derby. The Swales Stakes brought about another dominating performance by D’Funnybone, who won easily by a little more than one length. Trainer Rick Dutrow said that he will send him out next in the Withers Stakes on April 24, and that the D’Wildcat colt will most likely skip the Run for the Roses and shoot for the Preakness. His connections feel like the Preakness distance is a better fit for him.

This weekend brings some of the richest stakes races on the schedule. The $2,000,000 Group II UAE Derby boasts a fine international field, but it will not include Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Winner Vale of York due to an injury. Vale of York’s vanquisher last time out, Mendip, will be the favorite. For my selection, I will take the undefeated Mendip. The most proven horse in the Grade II Louisiana Derby is Discretely Mine, who is looking to show that his win in the Risen Star was no fluke. Some notable horses that are looking for a shot at redemption in this race are Drosselmeyer and Ron the Greek. Both of them were beaten last time out by Discretely Mine in the Risen Star. I think Drosselmeyer will redeem himself and earn himself a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Northern Kentucky’s premiere race, the Grade II Lane’s End Stakes, will produce at least one likely Derby starter. The most likely horse this year, Connemara, looks to show he can win a stakes race outside of California. He is my selection for this one. The richest domestic Derby prep race this week is the $800,000 Grade III Sunland Derby. This is the same race that last year’s Derby Winner Mine That Bird came from. Bob Baffert’s Conveyance looks to be the favorite. Louisiana Derby Runner-up Tempted to Tapit is looking for his golden ticket to the Run for Roses, and will provide a challenge for Conveyance for the early lead. I’m going with Tempted to Tapit here.

In Oaks news, Devil May Care atoned from her terrible performance last time out by beating a very nice field of fillies by almost 3 lengths. Multiple graded stakes winner Amen Hallelujah finished second, and the ultra-hyped allowance winner Christine Daae finished fifth. Hot Dixie Chick made her return to the races a successful one, winning the Prima Donna Stakes at Oaklawn Park by almost six lengths. The major questions with her are whether not she can be able stretch out her brilliance to the Oaks distance, and if she will be ready for the Oaks on the last day of April. The only graded stakes race for fillies this weekend is the Grade III Bourbonette Oaks Breeders’ Cup at Turfway. This race looks to be unlikely to produce the Oaks winner, but it might get a horse in the starting gate for the Oaks.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
March 25, 2010 (Week 11)
1. Eskendereya
The Wood Memorial will be his chance to stamp himself as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
2. Conveyance
The Sunland Derby is a chance for him to pad his earnings, but could an upset be brewing?
3. Odysseus
The brilliant son of Malibu Moon is probably going to train up to the Run for the Roses.
4. Lookin At Lucky
Bob Baffert said that his champion will most likely go in the Santa Anita Derby on April 3 next.
5. Ice Box
The Zito trained colt was dazzling in winning the Florida Derby with a fantastic stretch run.
6. Awesome Act
The Wood is the chance for this regally bred colt to knock Eskendereya from his lofty perch.
7. D’Funnybone
Once again, he won with relative ease. He dropped a little because he may bypass the Derby.
8. Discreetly Mine
The Risen Star winner looks to add to his resume this weekend in the Louisiana Derby.
9. Tempted to Tapit
It’s time for him show that he is a real Derby contender in the Sunland Derby this weekend.
10. Noble’s Promise
The son of Cuvee will return to Oaklawn Park to contest in the Arkansas Derby on April 10.
Keep an eye on: Connemara, Super Saver

Dropped from list: Rule

Upcoming Races
3/27/10 – UAE Derby (G2) (1900m, Meydan Racecourse) $2,000,000
3/27/10 – Louisiana Derby (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds) $750,000
3/27/10 – Lane’s End Stakes (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Turfway Park) $500,000
3/28/10 – Sunland Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Sunland Park) $800,000
Last Week’s Races
3/20/10 – Florida Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Ice Box
3/20/10 – Swale Stakes (G2) (7 furlongs, Gulfstream Park) Winner: D’Funnybone

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
March 25, 2010 (Week 11)
1. Devil May Care
She is now a leading candidate to win the Oaks after her huge score in the Bonnie Miss.
2. She Be Wild
The Champ is working up to her next start in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 3.
3. Hot Dixie Chick
She put herself back in the spotlight after winning big last week. Can she go the distance?
4. Sassy Image
Not sure when this Broken Vow filly will resurface next. Trainer Romans hasn’t specified.
5. Blind Luck
She is working at Santa Anita preparing for the Fantasy Stakes and her shot at redemption.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Diva Delite

Dropped from list: Christine Daae

Upcoming Races
3/27/10 – Bourbonette Oaks Breeder’s Cup (G3) (1 mile, Turfway Park) $75,000
Last Week’s Races
3/20/10 – Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Devil May Care
3/20/10 – Cicada Stakes (G3) (6 furlongs, Aqueduct) Winner: Liam’s Dream

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Talk Derby To Us: Week 10

March 17, 2010

Hello Everyone,

What a weekend! Last weekend brought about the return of Champion Lookin at Lucky to the races. He faced some very tough competition in the Grade II Rebel including Grade I winners Dublin and Noble’s Promise. The Champ prevailed getting up to catch Noble’s Promise at the wire in his first start on dirt. Trainer Bob Baffert said his final prep race for the Derby would come in either the Arkansas Derby or the Wood Memorial. In the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby, Odysseus defeated race favorite Super Saver. It wasn’t by much though. Odysseus held on to win by a nose over Schoolyard Dreams with Super Saver a half a length back in third. Trainer Tom Albertrani said he will wait on deciding if his colt will need another prep or just train him up to the Kentucky Derby. Sidney’s Candy wired the field in the Grade II San Felipe, winning by a half length over Interactif. Caracortado was third, and graded stakes winner American Lion was fourth. The Santa Anita Derby will be next for Sidney’s Candy.

Gulfstream Park will host the only two graded stakes for the boys this weekend in the Grade I Florida Derby and the Grade II Swale Stakes. The likely favorite for the Florida Derby will be Sam F. Davis Winner Rule. IEAH will send out European import Radiohead, who won an allowance race at Gulfstream in his 2010 bow. Also in the field is Lentenor, a full brother to Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby Winner Barbaro. Lentenor will be making his dirt debut here after running mostly on the turf. For my selection, I will go with the favorite Rule. The Swale Stakes, run at 7 furlongs, is headlined by the speedy D’Funnybone. He will face only one other graded stakes winner, Dixie Band. The gelded son of Dixie Union will be making his first start of the year in the Swale. I am going to go for D’Funnybone in this one.

For the girls last weekend, Diva Delite won the Grade III Florida Oaks pulling away to win by two lengths. In the Grade III Honeybee, No Such Word upset favorite Beautician, winning by two and a half lengths. Decelerator finished fourth. The Grade III Cicada was rescheduled for this weekend due to weather. The field for the Cicada this weekend will include notable fillies Bickersons, Liam’s Dream and Fuzzy Britches. The Cicada is run at six furlongs, which means it is unlikely that any horse in this race will run in the Kentucky Oaks. The Grade II Bonnie Miss will have a very competitive field. Amen Hallelujah, a graded stakes winner on the east coast and the west coast, will look to show that she can win at over one mile and stamp herself as the top Oaks contender. Grade I Winner Devil May Care is looking to rebound after her fifth place finish in the Grade III Silverbulletday on February 20. Also in the field is the brilliant allowance winner Christine Daae. Christine Daae opted out of the Grade II Davona Dale, which was won by Amen Hallelujah, for an allowance race run around two turns, and she successfully passed that test. Look for her to try to stamp herself as a prominent Oaks contender in this one.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
March 17, 2010 (Week 10)
1. Eskendereya
He will bypass the Florida Derby this weekend and wait for the Wood Memorial on April 3.
2. Conveyance
The Baffert trainee is working at Santa Anita toward his final Derby prep, the Sunland Derby.
3. Odysseus
He stamped himself a legitimate contender for the Derby after winning the Tampa Bay Derby.
4. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ was a winner in his 2010 debut. The Smart Strike colt took the Rebel by a head.
5. D’Funnybone
The speedy son of D’Wildcat will run in the Swale and not the Florida Derby this weekend.
6. Rule
He will run this weekend in the Florida Derby as the favorite after Eskendereya’s defection.
7. Awesome Act
The Wood Memorial and a very tough field await the Awesome Again colt for his next race.
8. Discreetly Mine
He is at Palm Meadow working toward his next start in the Louisiana Derby next weekend.
9. Tempted to Tapit
His connections are looking at the Louisiana Derby next weekend for the speedy Tapit colt.
10. Noble’s Promise
The Cuvee colt ran a great race finishing second to Lookin at Lucky in his sophomore debut.
Keep an eye on: Connemara, Super Saver

Dropped from list: Buddy’s Saint, Caracortado

Upcoming Races
3/20/10 – Florida Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park) $750,000
3/20/10 – Swale Stakes (G2) (7 furlongs, Gulfstream Park) $150,000
Last Week’s Races
3/13/10 – Rebel Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) Winner: Lookin at Lucky
3/13/10 – San Felipe (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita Park) Winner: Sidney’s Candy
3/13/10 – Tampa Bay Derby (G3) (1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs) Winner: Odysseus

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
March 17, 2010 (Week 10)
1. Amen Hallelujah
She will get her chance to show that she can win at over one mile in the Bonnie Miss Saturday.
2. She Be Wild
The Champ was scratched from the Florida Oaks. Next for her will be the Ashland April 3.
3. Sassy Image
Not sure when this Broken Vow filly will resurface next. Trainer Romans hasn’t specified.
4. Blind Luck
She will look for her shot at redemption in the Fantasy Stakes on April 2 at Oaklawn Park.
5. Christine Daae
The super talented Giant’s Causeway filly will make her graded stakes debut this weekend.
Keep an eye on: Diva Delite, Hot Dixie Chick

Dropped from list: Beautician

Upcoming Races
3/20/10 – Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park) $200,000
3/20/10 – Cicada Stakes (G3) (6 furlongs, Aqueduct) $100,000
Last Week’s Races
3/13/10 – Florida Oaks (G3) (1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Diva Delite
3/13/10 – Honeybee Stakes (G3) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) Winner: No Such Word
3/13/10 – Cicada Stakes (G3) (6 furlongs, Aqueduct) Rescheduled for 3/20/10