Talk Derby To Us: Week 16

April 30, 2010

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Kentucky Derby weekend is finally here. Twenty three-year-olds are set to take their spots in the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby, but for the second straight year, the undisputed favorite will not be there. Eskendereya was pulled from Derby consideration earlier this week after a filling was found in his knee. Now we are left with a very competitive field, with no clear favorite. The two top choices on the morning line, Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy, drew the inside and outside posts respectively. This puts both of them at extreme disadvantages. Heavy rains are expected for the race on Saturday, which changes everything for handicappers.

As I break down the race, horses that I think you should immediately toss out in your handicapping are Line of David, Dean’s Kitten, Make Music for Me, Backtalk, and Homeboykris. Remember that California horses have had a major lack of success in the Derby after the state changed its surfaces over to synthetics, so toss out Lookin at Lucky and Sidney’s Candy. Don’t succumb to the hype that they are getting. I thought that Devil May Care should have run in the Oaks, and I don’t particularly like her chances here. Todd Pletcher did get his only Triple Crown race win with a filly, Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont, but this filly is no Rags to Riches.

There appears to be too many speed horses for a horse to get loose on the front end and win. Look for horses like American Lion, Conveyance, and Discreetly Mine. Conveyance is probably the only one that has a legitimate chance to win on the front end.

A couple horses like Super Saver, Paddy O’Prado, and Jackson Bend will most likely be up there with the leaders. Super Saver has to be taken seriously as Calvin Borel’s Derby mount. Borel has won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies. Paddy O’Prado is a trendy upset choice, but he is a turf specialist and is a huge question mark. Jackson Bend is a legitimate horse that will have a sweet price. Nick Zito has pulled shockers before, so don’t be surprised if this horse wins.

The horses likely to sit off the pace include Noble’s Promise, Mission Impazible, and Dublin. Noble’s Promise does not have the pedigree to get the Derby distance, but he has been working well. Mission Impazible is still flying under the radar. He is a really nice horse that will get an amazing price, at least 20-1. He has improved in every start this year, so I don’t understand why he is still not getting enough attention. He put in a great work last week at Churchill, very much outshining his stablemate Rule. Dublin is a nice colt, and he has done well this year. I don’t really think he is good enough to get the distance.

There are three closers on the board to watch out for, Ice Box, Stately Victor, and Awesome Act. Ice Box will be the one of the closers that will be most dependant on the pace, but I don’t think it will be fast enough for him to get up for the win. Throw him out of exotic wagering at your own risk. Stately Victor is a quickly improving colt with a lot of upside and a lot of question marks. His father, Ghostzapper, could certainly go 1 1/4 miles and could definitely run in the slop. Is he another Blue Grass fluke, or is he the real deal? Awesome Act is a serious contender if he returns to the form he displayed in the Gotham. He will put in a strong move, but will it be enough to catch the leader in time?

Now for my selections, I think Mission Impazible will be the winner. I really liked his work at Churchill last week. Awesome Act will get up for the place, but I will not be surprised if he beats me. I’ll take Stately Victor for the show, and Jackson Bend will hold on for fourth.

For the Oaks, Blind Luck is going to be the clear favorite, but she is a favorite that I think can be beaten. I really like the form that It’s Tea Time has been showing as of late, and I think the 1 1/8 miles will really suit her. I don’t think that Evening Jewel is an Ashland fluke, but I’m not really certain about her. She will be making her first start on a traditional dirt surface. If you’re looking for a live longshot Champagne d’Oro is the horse for you. She is by Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of last year’s Oaks Winner Rachel Alexandra, and if she is allowed to get loose on the lead, look out. I think that It’s Tea Time will win the 136th running of the Kentucky Oaks.

It was a fun ride to the Kentucky Derby. I would like to thank everyone for keeping up with the list even though it has come out late at times. I have had an unbelievably busy this semester. Thank you for your patience. I will continue to maintain a list throughout the rest of the Triple Crown.

As always thank you for reading my list! Happy Derby weekend!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 29, 2010 (Week 16)
1. Mission Impazible
He has improved in every start this year. He looks to take a big step up in the Kentucky Derby.
2. Awesome Act
The European trainee will be very dangerous if he is the same horse that won the Gotham.
3. Stately Victor
He has been working great in the mud. His daddy, Ghostzapper, could sure run in the mud.
4. Jackson Bend
He has been super in his workouts at Churchill Downs. He has been flying under the radar.
5. Ice Box
He took a hit when Rule scratched. This pace is not going to be fast enough for him to win.
6. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ was anything but Lucky in his post position draw. He won’t be able to overcome it.
7. Sidney’s Candy
The West Coast star is a popular choice, but drawing the outside post really hurts his chances.
8. Noble’s Promise
He has been working well at Churchill. His pedigree says he can’t get the Derby distance.
9. Super Saver
It is very hard to count Calvin Borel out of any race at Churchill Downs, especially the Derby.
10. Paddy O’Prado
He has a very turf pedigree, but he has shown he can run in the mud with a very strong work.

Keep an eye on: Conveyance, Line of David

Dropped from list: Eightyfiveinafifty, Endorsement, Eskendereya

Upcoming Races
5/1/10 – Kentucky Derby (G1) (1 1/4 miles, Churchill Downs) $2,000,000
Last Week’s Races
4/24/10 – Derby Trial (G3) (1 mile, Churchill Downs) Winner: Hurricane Ike
4/24/10 – Withers Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Aqueduct) Winner: Afleet Again

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 29, 2010 (Week 16)
1. Blind Luck
If Devil May Care defects from the Oaks, she will most likely take up the mantle of favorite.
2. Evening Jewel
The Ashland Winner would be a great Cinderella story if she can win the lilies next week.
3. Amen Hallelujah
The daughter of Malibu Moon may bypass the Kentucky Oaks for the Run for the Roses.
4. It’s Tea Time
She back on the list. I have still not given up on this one. If she runs, she will be tough to beat.
5. Champagne d’Oro
Has been getting some criticism after her Comely win; it’s time for her to show that she’s legit.
Keep an eye on: Ailalea, Quiet Temper

Dropped from list: Devil May Care, Hot Dixie Chick, Sassy Image, Touching Beauty

Upcoming Races
4/30/10 – Kentucky Oaks (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Churchill Downs) $500,000
Last Week’s Races
None