Talk Derby To Us: Week 15

April 22, 2010

Hello Everyone,

The road to the Kentucky Derby has finally made its way to Churchill Downs. The graded earnings list remains intact after last week’s Grade II Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. No horse was able to gather sufficient earnings to jump into the one of the coveted top twenty spots. Robby Albarado guided Exhi to a beautiful front running masterpiece to pull the huge upset at 20-1. My surprise selection Krypton finished ninth. The only change that has appeared to occur is that trainer Todd Pletcher has mentioned that he is considering entering his filly Devil May Care in the Run for the Roses to go along with his slew of colts.

This week has two graded stakes races for the colts, with only one of them most likely having an impact on the Kentucky Derby. The Grade III Derby Trial every few years will produce a Derby starter, but usually they are an afterthought not worth mentioning. This year is different. There are two horses that are looking into earning a spot in the Derby starting gate, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince. Eigthyfiveinafifty drew a lot of attention to himself back in January when he broke his maiden by over 17 lengths at Aqueduct. In his next start, the Whirlaway Stakes, he blew the turn, dumping his jockey in the process. He then proceeded to hop a couple fences and ran loose around the backside before a security guard was able to catch him. He received some time off to recover from the incident. He resurfaced in the Grade III Bay Shore at Aqueduct. He was very professional in his very easy victory. The other big hose looking for a spot in the Derby is Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. He started off the season with a runner-up finish to Ice Box in an allowance race, which was followed up with a fourth place finish in the Fountain of Youth far behind Eskendereya. His next start was his nose defeat in the Grade I Florida Derby, again losing to Ice Box. He was never a factor in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes finishing seventh. For my selection, I am going to take the speed demon Eightyfiveinafifty. The Grade III Withers Stakes is headlined by multiple grade II winner D’Funnybone, who is going to bypass the Derby for the Preakness, so the Withers will most likely not produce a Derby starter. I don’t think that any is going to be able to beat D’Funnybone in this one.

Even though there were no races for the girls last week and none are happening this week, there was a major shakeup. Champion She Be Wild is out of the Oaks after fracturing her left front pastern. She will be able make a return to racing. The only other Oaks happening is the possibility of Devil May Care defecting to run in the Derby.

It has been a fun road to Churchill Downs this year. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did, and I look forward to putting out my Derby preview issue next week.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 22, 2010 (Week 15)
1. Eskendereya
It’s almost show time for the Derby favorite. Will this colt make himself into a superstar?
2. Mission Impazible
The son of Unbridled’s Song is not getting the attention that he deserves as a real contender.
3. Ice Box
Nick Zito’s strong closing colt is going to depend on a very fast pace to win the big race.
4. Awesome Act
This horse is sitting on a big performance. He is going to rebound from his unlucky Wood.
5. Stately Victor
Can he show he is no fluke, or will he be another Blue Grass winner to fold on Derby day?
6. Lookin At Lucky
Redemption is the word for the Champ. He has been very unlucky in his last couple starts.
7. Sidney’s Candy
The West Coast star will most likely not be allowed to roam free on the lead as he has out west.
8. Jackson Bend
He put in a super bullet workout on Thursday at Churchill. Will he have the earnings to get in?
9. Eightyfiveinafifty
It is all up to him now to earn himself the right to compete in the premier three-year-old race.
10. Noble’s Promise
Moved back onto the list after he fired sizzling bullet work going five furlongs at Churchill.

Keep an eye on: Endorsement, Line of David

Dropped from list: Super Saver

Upcoming Races
4/24/10 – Derby Trial (G3) (1 mile, Churchill Downs) $200,000
4/24/10 – Withers Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Aqueduct) $150,000
Last Week’s Races
4/17/10 – Lexington Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Keeneland) Winner: Exhi

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 22, 2010 (Week 15)
1. Devil May Care
The daughter of Malibu Moon may bypass the Kentucky Oaks for the Run for the Roses.
2. Blind Luck
If Devil May Care defects from the Oaks, she will most likely take up the mantle of favorite.
3. Evening Jewel
The Ashland Winner would be a great Cinderella story if she can win the lilies next week.
5. Sassy Image
She back on the list. I have still not given up on this one. If she runs, she will be tough to beat.
4. Touching Beauty
Has been getting some criticism after her Comely win; it’s time for her to show that she’s legit.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Hot Dixie Chick

Dropped from list: She Be Wild

Upcoming Races
None
Last Week’s Races
None