Talk Derby To Us: Week 13

April 8, 2010

Hello Everyone,

Well ladies and gentlemen, we have our favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya stamped himself as the undisputed favorite for the run for the roses after winning the Grade I Wood Memorial by almost 10 lengths in hand. It was spectacular. I’ll be honest, I thought he would bounce off of his great performance in the Fountain of Youth, but I misjudged how good this horse really is. Awesome Act, my selection for the race finished third. Champion Lookin at Lucky was upset in the Santa Anita Derby, just as I predicted. I just chose the wrong horse. Sidney’s Candy was the horse to do it. Lookin at Lucky did not receive the best of rides from jockey Garrett Gomez, and Bob Baffert ripped him after the race for it. It has all been worked out and Gomez will retain the mount for the Run for the Roses. I was spot on in the Illinois Derby. The track played to speed, just as I thought, and American Lion wired the field. I picked up another winning prediction in the Grade III Bay Shore Stakes. Eightyfiveinafifty put himself back on the Derby trail with a win in the Bay Shore. He will need to win the Derby Trial to get himself a spot in the Derby. In the Grade III Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland, I correctly predicted that Nordic Truce would be the victor. That gave me three out of five for the weekend. Naturally, I missed the two Grade I races, but I got the Grade IIIs.

This week has only two graded stakes races for the colts, but they are two very big ones, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes and the Grade I Arkansas Derby. The Blue Grass has a great field with several horses looking to strengthen their derby credentials. Tampa Bay Derby Winner Odysseus is looking to cement his spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince will most likely go off as the favorite. Also in the field is stakes winner Paddy O’Prado and the much hyped Interactif. I think that Odysseus will be the victor in this one, making himself a leading contender for the Derby. The Arkansas Derby has a stellar field. Super Saver is looking to show he is still a horse to be reckoned with on the Derby trail. Noble’s Promise is trying to show his is a real Derby contender after a fine runner-up finish last time out. Grade I winner Dublin will be looking for his shot at redemption for himself and trainer D. Wayne Lucas. I’m going to go with Noble’s Promise on his nice performance last time out.

For the fillies, Blind Luck put herself back on the radar as a serious Oaks contender with a big score in the Grade II Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park. In the Grade I Ashland at Keeneland, Evening Jewel won after setting the repelling a couple bids for the lead. Champion She Be Wild finished third, but she shouldn’t lose respect here. Keeneland was the site of her only defeat during her championship season. The only grade stakes race for the girls this weekend is the Grade III Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. The field is full of fillies that are trying to make a name for themselves and build up their Oaks credentials.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 8, 2010 (Week 13)
1. Eskendereya
The Giant’s Causeway colt is now the undisputed Derby favorite after his romp in the Wood.
2. Mission Impazible
The grey colt has a great shot in the big race with his ability to sit just off the pace.
3. Odysseus
The Blue Grass Stakes is his last chance to gain enough earnings to ensure a spot in the Derby.
4. Ice Box
It looks like Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta are getting two horses in the Run for the Roses.
5. Noble’s Promise
He looks to improve after a strong runner-up performance in his last start this weekend.
6. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ went down last week due to a bad ride by his jock that sent tempers flaring.
7. Sidney’s Candy
All this colt does is he keeps on winning. He deserves recognition after beating the Champ.
8. Jackson Bend
The Florida Sensation moves to the Derby after two respectable places behind Eskendereya.
9. Eightyfiveinafifty
His chance at the Kentucky Derby will come in the Derby Trial in week before the Derby.
10. D’Funnybone
It appears the speedy son of D’Wildcat will bypass the Derby and go for the Preakness.

Keep an eye on: Awesome Act, Super Saver

Dropped from list: Schoolyard Dreams

Upcoming Races
4/10/10 – Blue Grass Stakes (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Keeneland) $750,000
4/10/10 – Arkansas Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn Park) $1,000,000
Last Week’s Races
4/3/10 – Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct) Winner: Eskendereya
4/3/10 – Santa Anita Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita Park) Winner: Sidney’s Candy
4/3/10 – Illinois Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Hawthorne) Winner: American Lion
4/3/10 – Bay Shore Stakes (G3) (7 furlongs, Aqueduct) Winner: Eightyfiveinafifty
4/3/10 – Transylvania Stakes (G3) (1 1/16 miles Turf, Keeneland) Winner: Nordic Truce

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 8, 2010 (Week 13)
1. Devil May Care
The Bonnie Miss winner will is still the one to beat for the April 30 Kentucky Oaks.
2. Blind Luck
She certainly redeemed herself with a big win in the Fantasy Stakes last week.
3. Evening Jewel
She deserves serious consideration after setting the pace and winning the Ashland.
4. Hot Dixie Chick
The big question for her is whether she is going to be ready or not for the big race.
5. She Be Wild
The Champ returned to the site of her only defeat last year and lost the race but not respect.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Sassy Image

Dropped from list: Diva Delite

Upcoming Races
3/10/10 – Comely Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Aqueduct) $100,000
Last Week’s Races
3/2/10 – Fantasy Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) Winner: Blind Luck
3/3/10 – Ashland Stakes (G1) (1 1/16 mile, Keeneland) Winner: Evening Jewel