Talk Derby To Us: Week 12

April 2, 2010

Hello Everyone,

I must apologize for the late release of this week’s edition. I had a lot of schoolwork to so. Last week was a huge week, with several upsets, and I got roughed up a little bit myself. Four horses were knocked off the list, and I didn’t pick a single winner right in any of the four big stakes. Ouch! The richest Derby prep, the UAE Derby, was won by Musir an Australian colt by superstar stallion Redoute’s Choice who is a no for the Kentucky Derby because of the southern hemisphere age difference. Mendip, my can’t miss selection finished third. In the Grade II Louisiana Derby, Mission Impazible collard pacesetter A Little Warm in deep stretch. My selection, Drosselmeyer finished third, and former Derby Top Ten member Discretely Mine finished fourth. To add insult to injury, I gave up on Mission Impazible a couple races ago! At least I knew that the son of Unbridled’s Song had talent… I did the exact same thing with Dean’s Kitten in the Lane’s End Stakes. I thought he would do well in the stakes races at Turfway this year, but gave up on him after a loss last time out. My selection Connemara finished third (Notice a pattern yet), and he subsequently fell off the list. The Sunland Derby the next day was supposed to be my saving grace, but it wasn’t to be. I was right that Conveyance (another list dropout) would be upset, but I picked the wrong horse. WinStar’s Endorsement was the one to spring the upset. Naturally, Tempted to Tapit finished third… At least I was consistent with my picks!

This weekend is littered with graded stakes for three-year old colts. The Grade I Wood Memorial will be bringing the most competitive field to the post. The favorite will be Fountain of Youth Winner Eskendereya. The son of Giant’s Causeway is looking to cement his status as the undisputed favorite in the Run for the Roses. Standing in his way is the up and coming Awesome Act. The regally bred Awesome Again colt wants to throw his name in the hat for a shot at being the Derby favorite. Schoolyard Dreams in looking for redemption after getting nosed out at the line in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby. Also in the field is the Florida Sensation, Jackson Bend. Once very highly rated on the list, he fell off after two losses this year, but they were both runner-up performances to Winslow Homer and Eskendereya, not bad at all. Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta’s colt is getting a little overlooked… wait a second. Aren’t these the two that sprung the upset in the Florida Derby with another overlooked colt? That wasn’t their first dance either. Remember back in 2008, their Da’Tara pulled the shocker in the Belmont over the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Winner Big Brown. It would take all day to recount how many times Nick Zito has done this sort of thing. I think Eskendereya is going to bounce in this race. That performance last time out was too good. If he doesn’t bounce, he’s a freak, and we will have a serious Triple Crown contender on our hands. I like that horse, but I don’t think he’s of that caliber. I would love to see Zito do it again with Jackson Bend. I really like that horse, but I can’t bring myself to picking him. I am going to go with Awesome Act. He looked great last time out, winning the Gotham in hand. We have seen Awesome Again sire freakishly good horses before, remember Ghostzapper? In the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, Champion Lookin At Lucky, Sidney’s Candy and Caracortado look to do battle. Lookin At Lucky has no pressure to win, so he most likely won’t be pushed too hard. I think he’ll lose. I don’t think Sidney’s Candy is going to get away with this one on the lead. I think Caracortado is going to take it, giving the media its darling Cinderella story. The Grade III Illinois Derby will bring American Lion, who is desperate for redemption. The race could play into his hands since this race traditionally has been very kind to speed horses (see War Emblem and Recapturetheglory). The likely favorite will be the Smarty Jones colt, Backtalk, who won his debut back in late February fighting pacesetter Royal Express to the wire. I think that this race will play to the pacesetter as it has done in the past, so I’m going with American Lion. The other two graded stakes are unlikely to produce a Derby starter, but I’ll make selections for them anyway. Eightyfiveinafifty will win the Grade III Bay Shore with ease showing he’s one of the top three-year old sprinters. In the Grade III Transylvania, the undefeated Nordic Truce will take down the American Ascot hero Strike the Tiger.

For the girls the only graded stakes last week was the Grade III Bourbonette Oaks Breeders’ Cup at Turfway Park. It was won by Orchestrator. I don’t she is a serious contender for the Oaks. This weekend however, has two huge races. The Grade I Ashland will feature a very nice field that includes Champion She Be Wild and Canadian Champion Negligee. Negligee was the only horse to beat She Be Wild during her championship season. The Grade II Fantasy at Oaklawn drew a very short field of only four horses. Grade I Winner Blink Luck will be the heavy favorite against this very short field.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
April 2, 2010 (Week 12)
1. Eskendereya
The Wood is where he can show his supremacy once and for all as the favorite for the Derby.
2. Mission Impazible
The Unbridled’s Song Colt had an impressive stretch run in winning the Louisiana Derby.
3. Odysseus
Tom Albertrani said that he will run the son of Malibu Moon colt in the Blue Grass Stakes.
4. Lookin At Lucky
The Champ will go to the post in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday as the decided favorite.
5. Ice Box
Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta are going to try to score another upset with their Jackson Bend.
6. Awesome Act
He can vault to the top of the list with a win in the Wood, but can he beat Eskendereya?
7. D’Funnybone
Trainer Rick Dutrow said he will most likely run in the Withers and then the Preakness.
8. Noble’s Promise
The Arkansas Derby next weekend will show us if this colt is a contender or a pretender.
9. Jackson Bend
Returns to the list after a long absence. Could Zito score another shakeup on the Derby trail?
10. Sidney’s Candy
The horses on the list are dropping like flies. The California runner is here almost by default.
Keep an eye on: Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver

Dropped from list: Connemara, Conveyance, Discreetly Mine, Tempted to Tapit

Upcoming Races
4/3/10 – Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct) $750,000
4/3/10 – Santa Anita Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita Park) $750,000
4/3/10 – Illinois Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Hawthorne) $500,000
4/3/10 – Bay Shore Stakes (G3) (7 furlongs, Aqueduct) $200,000
4/3/10 – Transylvania Stakes (G3) (1 1/16 miles Turf, Keeneland) $100,000
Last Week’s Races
3/27/10 – UAE Derby (G2) (1900m, Meydan Racecourse) Winner: Musir
3/27/10 – Louisiana Derby (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds) Winner: Mission Impazible
3/27/10 – Lane’s End Stakes (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Turfway Park) Winner: Dean’s Kitten
3/28/10 – Sunland Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Sunland Park) Winner: Endorsement

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
April 2, 2010 (Week 12)
1. Devil May Care
She is now a leading candidate to win the Oaks after her huge score in the Bonnie Miss.
2. She Be Wild
The Champ will get to strut he stuff this weekend at Keeneland in the Ashland Stakes.
3. Hot Dixie Chick
She put herself back in the spotlight after winning big last week. Can she go the distance?
4. Blind Luck
She can redeem herself with a win in the Fantasy on Friday, and put her name back at the top.
5. Sassy Image
Not sure when this Broken Vow filly will resurface next. Trainer Romans hasn’t specified.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Diva Delite

Dropped from list: None

Upcoming Races
3/2/10 – Fantasy Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) $300,000
3/3/10 – Ashland Stakes (G1) (1 1/16 mile, Keeneland) $400,000
Last Week’s Races
3/27/10 – Bourbonette Oaks Breeder’s Cup (G3) (1 mile, Turfway Park) Winner: Orchestrator