Talk Derby To Us: Week 11

March 25, 2010

Hello Everyone,

In the Grade I Florida Derby and the Grade II Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park last weekend, Derby dreams become a reality for some, but for others, it disappeared. In the Florida Derby, Ice Box put in a dazzling stretch run barely beating Pleasant Prince to the wire by a nose. The favorite, Rule, was caught in deep stretch and finished third. Trainer Nick Zito said that he will train the Florida Derby Winner up to the Kentucky Derby. The Swales Stakes brought about another dominating performance by D’Funnybone, who won easily by a little more than one length. Trainer Rick Dutrow said that he will send him out next in the Withers Stakes on April 24, and that the D’Wildcat colt will most likely skip the Run for the Roses and shoot for the Preakness. His connections feel like the Preakness distance is a better fit for him.

This weekend brings some of the richest stakes races on the schedule. The $2,000,000 Group II UAE Derby boasts a fine international field, but it will not include Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Winner Vale of York due to an injury. Vale of York’s vanquisher last time out, Mendip, will be the favorite. For my selection, I will take the undefeated Mendip. The most proven horse in the Grade II Louisiana Derby is Discretely Mine, who is looking to show that his win in the Risen Star was no fluke. Some notable horses that are looking for a shot at redemption in this race are Drosselmeyer and Ron the Greek. Both of them were beaten last time out by Discretely Mine in the Risen Star. I think Drosselmeyer will redeem himself and earn himself a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Northern Kentucky’s premiere race, the Grade II Lane’s End Stakes, will produce at least one likely Derby starter. The most likely horse this year, Connemara, looks to show he can win a stakes race outside of California. He is my selection for this one. The richest domestic Derby prep race this week is the $800,000 Grade III Sunland Derby. This is the same race that last year’s Derby Winner Mine That Bird came from. Bob Baffert’s Conveyance looks to be the favorite. Louisiana Derby Runner-up Tempted to Tapit is looking for his golden ticket to the Run for Roses, and will provide a challenge for Conveyance for the early lead. I’m going with Tempted to Tapit here.

In Oaks news, Devil May Care atoned from her terrible performance last time out by beating a very nice field of fillies by almost 3 lengths. Multiple graded stakes winner Amen Hallelujah finished second, and the ultra-hyped allowance winner Christine Daae finished fifth. Hot Dixie Chick made her return to the races a successful one, winning the Prima Donna Stakes at Oaklawn Park by almost six lengths. The major questions with her are whether not she can be able stretch out her brilliance to the Oaks distance, and if she will be ready for the Oaks on the last day of April. The only graded stakes race for fillies this weekend is the Grade III Bourbonette Oaks Breeders’ Cup at Turfway. This race looks to be unlikely to produce the Oaks winner, but it might get a horse in the starting gate for the Oaks.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
March 25, 2010 (Week 11)
1. Eskendereya
The Wood Memorial will be his chance to stamp himself as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
2. Conveyance
The Sunland Derby is a chance for him to pad his earnings, but could an upset be brewing?
3. Odysseus
The brilliant son of Malibu Moon is probably going to train up to the Run for the Roses.
4. Lookin At Lucky
Bob Baffert said that his champion will most likely go in the Santa Anita Derby on April 3 next.
5. Ice Box
The Zito trained colt was dazzling in winning the Florida Derby with a fantastic stretch run.
6. Awesome Act
The Wood is the chance for this regally bred colt to knock Eskendereya from his lofty perch.
7. D’Funnybone
Once again, he won with relative ease. He dropped a little because he may bypass the Derby.
8. Discreetly Mine
The Risen Star winner looks to add to his resume this weekend in the Louisiana Derby.
9. Tempted to Tapit
It’s time for him show that he is a real Derby contender in the Sunland Derby this weekend.
10. Noble’s Promise
The son of Cuvee will return to Oaklawn Park to contest in the Arkansas Derby on April 10.
Keep an eye on: Connemara, Super Saver

Dropped from list: Rule

Upcoming Races
3/27/10 – UAE Derby (G2) (1900m, Meydan Racecourse) $2,000,000
3/27/10 – Louisiana Derby (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds) $750,000
3/27/10 – Lane’s End Stakes (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Turfway Park) $500,000
3/28/10 – Sunland Derby (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Sunland Park) $800,000
Last Week’s Races
3/20/10 – Florida Derby (G1) (1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Ice Box
3/20/10 – Swale Stakes (G2) (7 furlongs, Gulfstream Park) Winner: D’Funnybone

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
March 25, 2010 (Week 11)
1. Devil May Care
She is now a leading candidate to win the Oaks after her huge score in the Bonnie Miss.
2. She Be Wild
The Champ is working up to her next start in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 3.
3. Hot Dixie Chick
She put herself back in the spotlight after winning big last week. Can she go the distance?
4. Sassy Image
Not sure when this Broken Vow filly will resurface next. Trainer Romans hasn’t specified.
5. Blind Luck
She is working at Santa Anita preparing for the Fantasy Stakes and her shot at redemption.
Keep an eye on: Amen Hallelujah, Diva Delite

Dropped from list: Christine Daae

Upcoming Races
3/27/10 – Bourbonette Oaks Breeder’s Cup (G3) (1 mile, Turfway Park) $75,000
Last Week’s Races
3/20/10 – Bonnie Miss Stakes (G2) (1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Devil May Care
3/20/10 – Cicada Stakes (G3) (6 furlongs, Aqueduct) Winner: Liam’s Dream