Derby List week 9

March 11, 2010

Hello Everyone,

I apologize for how late I was on getting this issue out. I had quite a bit of work and studying to do for midterms this week. Last weekend’s races were thought to have soft fields and not have any horses that would emerge as serious contenders for the Kentucky Derby, but Awesome Act change a lot of people’s minds as he put on a dazzling performance in the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. The regally bred son of Awesome Again, was never fully extended as he cruised home to win by a little over a length. He will be one of the favorites in his next start in the Grade I Wood Memorial on April 3. In the Grade III Sham Stakes, Alphie’s Best sprung an upset on a field that lacked star power. I am not going to take this colt seriously yet. He does not have a pedigree that would indicate that he is a threat to win Kentucky Derby. At Gulfstream Park, Paddy O’Prado won the Grade III Palm Beach Stakes on the turf, but do not expect this colt to make a big dent on the Derby trail. He has a turf favoring pedigree, but do not be surprised if his connections decide to try him out on the dirt.

Some of the biggest stars from last year are taking the track this weekend. Champion Lookin at Lucky will finally make his long awaited sophomore debut in the Grade II Rebel at Oaklawn Park. He faces two Grade I winners from last year, Dublin and Noble’s Promise. Also entered in the field is the speedy stakes winner Royal Express, who finished second last time out to Grade I Winner Backtalk. For my prediction, I will go with the horse out of the big three that is proven on the dirt, Dublin. Out on the west coast, the Grade II San Felipe has a strong field. Undefeated Caracortado will face some tough competition from graded stakes winners Sidney’s Candy, Interactif, and American Lion, who is looking to atone for his loss in the Grade II Robert B. Lewis last month. Caracortado looks tough but I think that American Lion will avenge his loss last time out. The Grade III Tampa Bay Derby will see the return of one of the most talked about Derby candidates this year, Super Saver. In making his first start since last November, he faces a tough field that includes stakes winner Uptowncharlybrown and outstanding allowance winner Odysseus. Super Saver is a very nice horse, but he is coming off a very long layoff. I was too impressed with Odysseus’ last race, a 15 length score, so I will pick him to be the winner here.

There was a big shakeup with the girls last week as the seemingly invincible Blind Luck was upset by Crisp in the Santa Anita Oaks. Blind Luck just missed nailing the winner at the wire by a neck. This week boasts three graded stakes for the girls. The Grade III Florida Oaks will be the return of Champion She Be Wild, who was defeated in her 2010 debut last time out. Her vanquisher, Bickersons, will be in the field on Saturday for the Grade III Cicada, a filly sprint race up at Aqueduct. A very nice field is assembling for the Grade III Honeybee at Oaklawn Park. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Runner-Up Beautician will be making her first start of the year against Stakes Winner Decelerator. Both of these fillies are looking to prove that they can win a graded stakes race after multiple runner-up performances in them last year.

As always thank you for reading my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera
Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera
March 11, 2010 (Week 9)
1. Eskendereya
He has been working at Palm Meadows in preparation for his next race, the Florida Derby.
2. Conveyance
Trainer Bob Baffert said he will send out his Indian Charlie Colt next in the Sunland Derby.
3. Super Saver
It is time for him to show that last year was no fluke and that he is a serious Derby contender.
4. D’Funnybone
He is gearing up for next weekend, where he will go in either the Florida Derby or the Swale.
5. Rule
Trainer Todd Pletcher is not sure if this colt will go next in the Florida Derby or the Wood.
6. Awesome Act
He was simply awesome, pardon the pun, in easily winning the Gotham under a hand ride.
7. Discreetly Mine
The front-running half brother to Discreet Cat will definitely go next in the Louisiana Derby.
8. Buddy’s Saint
He will breeze a couple more times to prepare for the Wood and his chance at vindication.
9. Tempted to Tapit
He put in a very nice work last weekend. Next up for him is the Sunland Derby on March 28.
10. Lookin At Lucky
It is time for The Champ to show us if he is still the superstar he was last year in his dirt debut.
Keep an eye on: Caracortado, Connemara

Dropped from list: Jackson Bend

Upcoming Races
3/13/10 – Rebel Stakes (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) $300,000
3/13/10 – San Felipe (G2) (1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita Park) $150,000
3/13/10 – Tampa Bay Derby (G3) (1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs) $300,000
Last Week’s Races
3/6/10 – Gotham Stakes (G3) (1 1/16 miles, Aqueduct) Winner: Awesome Act
3/6/10 – Palm Beach Stakes (G3) (1 1/8 miles Turf, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Paddy O’Prado
3/6/10 – Sham Stakes (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita Park) Winner: Alphie’s Bet

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera
March 11, 2010 (Week 9)
1. Amen Hallelujah
She will go next week in the Bonnie Miss. She needs to prove she can win at over one mile.
2. She Be Wild
The Champ will look to redeem herself from her loss last time out this weekend at Gulfstream.
3. Sassy Image
She’s looking to show that her last race was a fluke and avenge her loss to Amen Hallelujah.
4. Hot Dixie Chick
She moved down the list because she has yet to run this year, and time is starting to run short.
5. Blind Luck
Thought to be the top filly in the country, but she has to rebuild her reputation after her loss.
Keep an eye on: Beautician, Christine Daae

Dropped from list: None

Upcoming Races
3/13/10 – Honeybee Stakes (G3) (1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park) $125,000
3/13/10 – Cicada Stakes (G3) (6 furlongs, Aqueduct) $100,000
Last Week’s Races
3/6/10 – Santa Anita Oaks (G1) (1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita Park) Winner: Crisp
3/6/10 – Herecomesthebride Stakes (G3) (1 1/8 miles Turf, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Khancord Kid