Talk Derby To Us

Introduction Seth’s Top Ten Derby List
January 7, 2010

Hello everyone,

It is January, and the smell of roses is in the air. A new crop of three-year olds are gearing up for their shot at racing immortality in "Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports." The 136th edition of Kentucky's signature race is set to take place on May 1, 2010. It is an annual celebration with an unparalleled tradition, the highest of fashion, the utmost elegance, and the combination of sheer power, grace and beauty. As the horses walk out onto the track with the playing of My Old Kentucky Home, there is not a dry eye in the crowd, and the roar of the crowd as the horses leave the starting gate is enough to give anyone goosebumps. The Kentucky Derby is truly one of America's greatest sporting spectacles. According to The Jockey Club statistics, There were 37,939 foals born in 2006, and only 19 (0.05%) of them were in the starting gate on May 2, 2009. Now that it is 2010, it is time to look for what 20 horses will make it to the starting gate for the Run for the Roses, and most importantly, who will win the 2010 Kentucky. Growing up in Kentucky I have been a Derby enthusiast. I am always trying to find the next horse that will win the Kentucky Derby, and I usually start looking for my Derby horse almost as soon as the Triple Crown is finished. I have had a lot of success with my Derby horses. Here is a list of my Derby horses since 2002 and how they finished in the Derby: 2002 – War Emblem (1st), 2003 – Empire Maker (2nd), 2004 – Lion Heart (2nd), 2005 – Noble Causeway (14th), 2006 – Barbaro (1st), 2007 – Curlin (3rd), 2008 – Big Brown (1st), 2009 – Dunkirk (11th). Most of these horses I caught onto early on. I have also selected longshot winners Thunder Gulch (1995) and Charismatic (1999). I say all of this not to brag, but to show that I have the knowledge of what kind of horse it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. I hope that my Derby list will be insightful, and that its readers will find enjoyable. Thank you for taking time to read my list, and it is my hope that you will have as much fun as I will on 2010 Kentucky Derby Trail as we count down to May 1, 2010.

The Kentucky Oaks list is new for this year, call it an experiment. I was not very good at picking Oaks winners for years until I started to try to find an Oaks horse a long way out, just like the Derby. 2007 was the first Oaks I tried this with. I found Dreaming of Anna beating the boys in Canada, and then and there I had my Oaks Horse. Her victory in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at Churchill Downs only strengthened my case. However she ended up finishing 6th. I had the 2008 Kentucky Oaks winner Proud Spell long before her runner-up finish in the 2007 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. I picked 2009 Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra after her runner-up finish in the Pocahontas the previous November. So since I have started looking early to find my Kentucky Oaks winner, I have done well. Again I say all of this not to brag, but to show that I can be a trusted source in finding the next Kentucky Oaks winner. Enjoy my newest list, and thank you for taking time to read it. Let the countdown to April 30, 2010 begin!

Enjoy both of these lists, and thank you so much for taking the time to read them.

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera

January 6, 2010 (Week 1)

1. Buddy’s Saint
Very impressive in winning the Nashua by 12 lengths and the Remsen by almost 5 lengths.

2. Super Saver
Fantastic in the biggest race for two-year-olds at Churchill Down, can he do it again in May?

3. Jackson Bend
He dominated the Florida scene last year, will he keep it up as the competition gets better?

4. D'Funnybone
Throw out the Breeders Cup Juvenile, his only other loss was to the sensational Jackson Bend.

5. Laus Deo
The son of Medaglia d’Oro looked very nice in winning the Count Fleet going wire-to-wire.

6. Eskendereya
Loved his stakes win at Belmont by more than 7 lengths last year, toss out the BC Juvenile.

7. Winslow Homer
Dominant taking an allowance race at Philly Park by 12, the real deal or a flash in the pan?

8. Lookin At Lucky
He was stellar last year winning three Grade 1 races, can’t move up unless he runs on dirt.

9. Rule
The straight victories including a game wire-to-wire victory in the Delta Jackpot last year.

10. Take Control
His daddy: A.P. Indy, his mommy: Azeri, both named horse of the year, nice win first time out.

Keep an eye on: American Lion, Overcommunication

Upcoming Races

1/9/10 – Spectacular Bid Stakes (6 furlongs, Gulfstream Park)

Last Week’s Races

1/1/10 – Tropical Park Derby (G3) (1 ⅛ miles Turf, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Fly by Phil

1/2/10 – Count Fleet Stakes (1 mile 70 yards, Aqueduct) Winner: Laus Deo

1/2/10 – Turfway Prevue Stakes (6 ½ furlongs, Turfway Park) Winner: Z.I. Zip

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera

January 6, 2010 (Week 1)

1. Sassy Image
She won two big stakes races last year at Churchill Downs, she will get better with distance.

2. She Be Wild
The Champ needs to prove that she can run on the dirt before she can move up to the #1 spot.

3. Awesome Maria
Big stakes win at Belmont last year, her loss in the Frizette last year was due to a bad trip.

4. Hot Dixie Chick
Dominant in two big stakes race at Saratoga, she has been shelved since early September.

5. Blind Luck
Was great in stakes races in California last year, has won impressively on the dirt at Calder.

Keep an eye on: Champagne Lady, Beautician


Upcoming Races

1/9/10 – Old Hat Stakes (G3) (6 furlongs, Gulfstream Park)

1/10/10 – Santa Ysbel Stakes (G3) (1 ⅟16 miles, Santa Anita)

1/10/10 – Busanda Stakes (1 mile 70 yards, Aqueduct)

Last Week’s Races

1/1/10 – California Oaks (1 ⅟16 miles, Golden Gate Fields) Winner: Antares World

1/1/10 – Blue Norther Stakes (1 mile, Santa Anita) Winner: In the Slips

1/1/10 – Maryland Filly Championship (7 ½ furlongs, Laurel Park) Winner: That’s How I Roll