Talk Derby To Us: Week 3

January 27, 2010

Hello Everyone,

Last week was a huge week on the Derby trail. Take Control, the regally bred colt by Horse of the Year A.P. Indy out of Horse of the Year Azeri, has been taken off the Derby trail due to an injury. The announcement came just hours after my last edition was sent out last Wednesday. Winslow Homer won the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park last Saturday by 3/4 lengths over Jackson Bend. This was just as I predicted last week. I said it would be Winslow Homer over Jackson Bend in a close one. Winslow Homer got jostled around at the start of the race, but the son of Unbridled’s Song did not get rattled. He found a hole and held off a challenge by the Florida sensation Jackson Bend. Jackson Bend lost no respect in defeat. He started from the outside post and was forced to go wide most of the way. Both of those colts look to be headed to the Fountain of Youth (G2) on February 20 to face a stellar field that could also include Super Saver (#3 on my list) and my #1 Derby Horse, Buddy’s Saint. In the LeComte Stakes (G3), Ron the Greek put in a powerful stretch dive to catch Maximus Ruler to win by 1 1/4 lengths. I think another good performance out of him is needed to stamp himself as a serious Derby contender. The LeComte has yet to produce a Derby winner, so I am skeptical about him at the moment. This week has two minor regional preps. The next big race is the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. American Lion, one of our horses to watch will make is 2010 debut there.

Some of my readers are not happy that Champion Lookin At Lucky is ranked so low on my list. I welcome this chance to defend my logic in ranking my Derby horses. No California horse has won the Derby, Preakness or the Belmont since they made the switch to synthetic surfaces, and until it happens, I can’t put one of these horses at the top of my list. Pioneerof the Nile was close in last year’s Derby, and Tiago finished third in the Belmont to Rags to Riches and Curlin in 2007. I do in no way have anything against synthetic surfaces or California horses. I will remain skeptical until one of them wins a Triple Crown race. It is the same logic I have had since they made the surface switch in California. The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland has shown it can produce a Derby winner, so it is a race that I take seriously. Don’t worry Lookin At Lucky fans, he will rise up the list as he wins and other horses lose (Pioneer of the Nile was in my top three last year).

There were no graded stakes for the fillies this past week. Rose Catherine looked very nice in winning the Sweet Life Stakes at Santa Anita by 3 1/2 lengths. Jody Slew pulled an upset in the Tiffany Lass Stakes at the Fair Grounds at 23-1. Champion She Be Wild may make her first start of the year this weekend in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes at Gulfstream on Sunday.

As always, thanks for taking the time to read my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera

January 27, 2010 (Week 4)

1. Buddy’s Saint
Put in another work at Gulfstream this week, will get a very stiff test in the Fountain of Youth.

2. Winslow Homer
Was super in a big win in the Holy Bull, next up is the Buddy’s Saint in the Fountain of Youth.

3. Super Saver
Looks like we him see him take on the big guns in a very tough Fountain of Youth on Feb. 20.

4. D’Funnybone
Breezed at Gulfstream this week, the Hutcheson Feb. 20 is up next for the son of D’wildcat.

5. Laus Deo
Looks to be the second horse to take the Count Fleet and the Derby along with Smarty Jones.

6. Eskendereya
The son of Giant’s Causeway gets his chance to prove himself in a loaded Fountain of Youth.

7. Jackson Bend
Ran a great race in the Holy Bull after running wide most of the way from the outside post.

8. Lookin At Lucky
Baffert is trying blinkers on the Champ, as he gears his colt up for the March 13 San Felipe.

9. Ron the Greek
Nice stretch run in his LeComte win, needs another big race to stamp him as a true contender.

10. Rule
Todd Pletcher worked his Delta Jackpot winner at 5 furlongs at Palm Meadows this week.

Keep an eye on: American Lion, Conveyance

Dropped from list: Take Control

Upcoming Races

1/30/10 – Dancing Count Stakes (6 furlongs, Laurel Park) $70,000
1/30/10 – WEBN Stakes (1 mile, Turfway Park) $50,000
Last Week’s Races
1/23/10 – Holy Bull Stakes (G3) (1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Winslow Homer
1/23/10 – LeComte Stakes (G3) (1 mile 40 yards, Fair Grounds) Winner: Ron the Greek

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera

January 27, 2010 (Week 4)

1. Sassy Image
Looks like the horse to beat, kicked off ‘10 in style and an ‘09 win at Churchill doesn’t hurt.

2. She Be Wild
Appears the Champ will make her 2010 debut in the Forward Gal this weekend at Gulfstream.

3. Awesome Maria
Looked great last year, still waiting for the grey daughter of Maria’s Mon to surface this year.

4. Hot Dixie Chick
Dominant in two big stakes race at Saratoga, she has been shelved since early September.

5. Blind Luck
Put in a 7 furlong work this week in preparation for the Feb. 6 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita.

Keep an eye on: Beautician, Christine Daae

Dropped from list: None

Upcoming Races
1/31/10 – Forward Gal Stakes (7 furlongs, Gulfstream) $150,000
Last Week’s Races
1/23/10 – Tiffany Lass Stakes (1 mile 40 yards, Fair Grounds) Winner: Jody Slew
1/24/10 – Sweet Life Stakes (6.5 Furlongs, Santa Anita Park) Winner: Rose Catharine