Talk Derby To Us: Week 2

January 13, 2010

Hello everyone,

Although no horses moved positions on this list, there were a lot of happenings on the Derby Trail. Eskenderya, my #6 ranked horse, beat a nice allowance field at Gulfstream on January 7 by just a little over a length. In the only stakes race for three year old colts, A Little Warm won the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream. In my opinion, this horse does not have a pedigree that would indicate a Derby horse, so he will have to win a race that is longer than 6 furlongs before he deserves consideration for the list. The same goes for Three Day Rush, who won a nice allowance race at Gulfstream by almost 6 lengths. He beat a nice field including Mission Impazible, who is a promising colt by Unbridled's Song. There were a couple of impressive maiden winners last week that deserve some attention. Eightyfiveinathirty broke his maiden at Aqueduct on January 9 by 17 1/4 lengths! It was an eye-popping performance by the son of Forrest Camp. The biggest question mark for him is can he still win like that as the races get longer for him? He definitely deserves some attention for his great performance. Another race like that, and he will find himself climbing up the list. Another maiden winner to keep an eye on is Major Momentum, who broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park on January 9 by 6 1/2 lengths. He is a half brother to the record-setting J Be K.

The races this weekend are mostly regional prep race for some of the bigger races coming up. The only graded stakes is the Grade 3 San Rafael at Santa Anita on January 16. (Remember that the top twenty horses by graded stakes earnings get to run in the Kentucky Derby) These races are worth noting, but most of the heavy hitters are still a couple weeks away from running.

There was no shakeup on the Oaks list this week despite a very nice win for Crisp in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes at Santa Anita. She is a horse to keep an eye on for down the road. It is very hard to predict how the California horses will run on a dirt surface when they come east, so I am cautious to rank them. The Grade 2 Santa Ynez on January 16 is the only graded stakes race for three year old fillies this week.

As always thanks for taking the time to read my list!

Sincerely,
Seth Kochera

Top Ten Derby Horses
By: Seth Kochera

January 13, 2010 (Week 2)

1. Buddy’s Saint
Put in a nice work this week at Gulfstream, his trainer said the Fountain of Youth is next.

2. Super Saver
Fantastic in the biggest race for two-year-olds at Churchill Down, can he do it again in May?

3. Jackson Bend
He dominated the Florida scene last year, will he keep it up as the competition gets better?

4. D’Funnybone
Throw out the Breeders Cup Juvenile, his only other loss was to the sensational Jackson Bend.

5. Laus Deo
The son of Medaglia d’Oro looked very nice in winning the Count Fleet going wire-to-wire.

6. Eskendereya
Had a nice allowance win last week at Gulfstream, next up the Fountain of Youth on Feb. 20.

7. Winslow Homer
Dominant taking an allowance race at Philly Park by 12, the real deal or a flash in the pan?

8. Lookin At Lucky
Can’t move up the list unless he runs on dirt, the San Felipe on March 13 is next for him.

9. Rule
The straight victories including a game wire-to-wire victory in the Delta Jackpot last year.

10. Take Control
His daddy: A.P. Indy, his mommy: Azeri, both named horse of the year, nice win first time out.

Keep an eye on: American Lion, Overcommunication

Upcoming Races
1/15/10 – Triple Sec Stakes (7 furlongs, Delta Downs) $60,000

1/16/10 – San Rafael Stakes (G3) (1 mile, Santa Anita Park) $100,000

1/16/10 – California Derby (1 1/16 miles, Golden Gate Fields) $100,000

1/16/10 – Dania Beach Stakes (1 mile Turf, Gulfstream Park) $100,000

1/16/10 – Pasco Stakes (7 furlongs, Tampa Bay Downs) $75,000

1/18/10 – Smarty Jones Stakes (1 mile, Oaklawn Park) $100,000

1/18/10 – Jimmy Winkfield Stakes (6 furlongs, Aqueduct) $65,000

1/18/10 – San Pedro Stakes (6.5 Furlongs, Santa Anita Park) $65,000

Last Week’s Races
1/9/10 – Spectacular Bid Stakes (6 furlongs, Gulfstream Park) Winner: A Little Warm

Oaks Top Five
By: Seth Kochera

January 13, 2010 (Week 2)

1. Sassy Image
She won two big stakes races last year at Churchill Downs, she will get better with distance.

2. She Be Wild
The Champ needs to prove that she can run on the dirt before she can move up to the #1 spot.

3. Awesome Maria
Big stakes win at Belmont last year, her loss in the Frizette last year was due to a bad trip.

4. Hot Dixie Chick
Dominant in two big stakes race at Saratoga, she has been shelved since early September.

5. Blind Luck
Was great in stakes races in California last year, has won impressively on the dirt at Calder.

Keep an eye on: Champagne Lady, Beautician

Upcoming Races
1/15/10 – Genesis Stakes (7 furlongs, Delta Downs) $60,000

1/15/10 – Dixie Belle Stakes (6 furlongs, Oaklawn Park) $50,000

1/16/10 – Santa Ynez Stakes (G2) (7 furlongs, Santa Anita Park) $150,000

1/16/10 – Gasparilla Stakes (7 furlongs, Tampa Bay Downs) $65,000

1/16/10 – Cincinnati Trophy Stakes (6.5 furlongs, Turfway Park) $50,000

1/17/10 – Sweetest Chant Stakes (1 mile Turf, Gulfstream Park) $100,000

Last Week’s Races
1/9/10 – Old Hat Stakes (G3) (6 furlongs, Gulfstream Park) Winner: Richiegirlgonewild

1/10/10 – Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3) (1 ⅟16 miles, Santa Anita) Winner: Crisp

1/10/10 – Busanda Stakes (1 mile 70 yards, Aqueduct) Winner: Age of Humor

1/10/10 – Ruthless Stakes (6 furlongs, Aqueduct) Winner: Indian Burn